Live Action Mafia

Conscription #2
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Author:  Lucy [ Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Conscription #2

After the rather unfortunate loss of Alex, you've managed to entice over another townie to the cause.

Welcome achester to the mafia :D

Author:  isaacg [ Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

Hi pesto! We're going to need a lot of help.

Author:  achester [ Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

Yeah, seems like it.

I'm desperado. I was going to go desperado tomorrow, so you need less help than you would've otherwise.

Catching up on the forums now.

Author:  achester [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

We have the following resources:
3 Set a Trap (1 set on qql)
3 Slaughter the Weak
1 Frame a Townsperson
2 Bring Out the Big Guns
1 Scheme
1 Hire a Hitman
3 Poison

benlin (Don)
achester (recruited)
ltchin (rogue)
At least one more rogue---maybe two, but there are no remaining people who contacted clearly-murder-spreeing lopezv, so our rogue(s) are inactive, misplaying, or dead. I bet on one inactive except for killing Jeanie and one dead, maybe kemus.

We're in a lot of trouble. I was a law-abiding townie and didn't collect any role information; pravinas, adamberg, dpalumbo, sashacf, and I check in on each other regularly, and I'll be out of town and reliable internet access this weekend. In fact, the only useful information I have is a warning that benlin was caught in a lie about his whereabouts for lizrita's killing. People seem to have forgotten about it, though, maybe?

For us to win, the town will basically have to implode---maybe someone'll come up with another 10 of aok's schemes? One advantage we have is that the town's lynch list starts with several innocents, and will probably stay that way if we don't disturb it.

Let's try just making as few and safe kills as possible for the next few days. I'll have a good chance to kill Justin and qql on Thursday; benlin (as Don) and ltchin (as rogue), try to arrange for a safe kill today and Wednesday?

Author:  isaacg [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

Note that we also have a trap set on anpere.

Author:  achester [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

Thinking more about how to come back from being this far down:

In general, when we're down, we want an untested, high-variance strategy. There are two high-variance approaches I can think of: going on rampages and laying low.

Going on rampages: there are 33 active town left, probably at most two of whom are innocent children and at most three of whom can be poisoned. The maximum death rate is 3.6/day (.6 from rogues, 1 regular kill, 1 lynch, 1 trap if we get lucky enough or are bold enough to have role information every day, maybe a prophet or desperado here or there). So game will last at least 9 more days at maximum rate, during which benlin and tsims have to survive.

Laying low: We could try making just one kill/day to prevent peace and quiet (or even letting peace and quiet happen occasionally), relying on the town to mess up. This is probably an awful strategy, but it seems like most of the mafia catchings have been from mafia actions and the town's plots've lost them lots of innocents. It also has the advantage of being less work for us for the much more likely case that we're going to lose anyway.

Author:  isaacg [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Conscription #2

I rather like the second option, because town seems ready to start lynching each other.

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